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You might have wondered where I left my mobile and wireless predictions for this year… well, actually I made a rough list a couple of weeks ago but couldn’t find the time yet to post them properly (shame on me). To be honest I’m probably not really the magician you might look for who can predict the future but people say I have a good feeling for trends, and ‘noblesse oblige’, so here we go.

Meanwhile I read most other predictions by fellow mobile bloggers so my predictions became less fresh and lost their blogging power so I thought I could do something extra and offer you my personal best of round-up of collegue mobile bloggers predictions and must read articles that drew my attention during holidays.

Now we have just entered 2006 and the mobile news is already heating up… Vodafone teams up with Sony NetServices for their new Radio DJ service. Motorola Officially Launches iRadio and signed already with Warner Music Group. Motorola partners with Google… Wait a minute… must be something going on with mobile music search here? Yes, good guess, I wrote something on this before…

But why this buzz in my introduction here?

Well it brought me back to my first ‘public’ prediction on Mobcasting (= Podcasting to my Mobile Phone), an article I wrote end of 2004 at the Wireless World Forum in 2004. I was not the one who invented the term but I remember Google then had something like 38 entries with the term “mobcasting”. You have to check this term now!

Looking at what I was predicting then and what people are doing now, this looks like a pretty good prediction. Meanwhile I learned a lot more about the mobile business and it’s nuances to respect as a blog writer.

So, what will be the next trends in mobile this year?

Since Nokia anounced earlier this year that all future phones for enterprises from Nokia will also be wi-fi equipped, the first signs of the operator monopolies will start shifting towards a a different kind of mobility, one with more services available for everyone.

It’s going to be the year of some more great (and more hybrid) devices, some which I can start using to interact with other home electronic equipment. There are going to be more direct download bluetooth services and wi-fi hot spots appearing and people will also start mobsharing unprotected files.

Brands will seek real mobile presence and MVNO’s will create a new market place for mobile music, especially the ones who have been into music since years like radio’s and broadcasters since they can count on their own active communities. Themes will become a new playground for many to manipulate the look of their phones.

I just got back from my monthly Mac Donald’s user habits check, not that I’m a big fan of macdo but that’s where teenagers hang out during their lunch break from school. Well just check for yourself what they do during those breaks? They’re not leaving their mobile for a second; they show off to friends, play around with sms, send pics and jokes over bluetooth, etc.

User-generated mobile content will continue to grow now that more people have a camera phone and they learn how to use it. The media will pick up on this trend and produce new content with this user-generated content.

One of my favorites is the convergence of internet services towards mobile, also called the mobile internet, or mobile web or also mobile web 2.0. Well, this space is going to become more and more crowded too with an energy injection from US companies, thanks Google and Yahoo!

Mobile Search is so crucial in this but it’s not all: when I click a link in Google, the website connected to that link should be correctly displayed on the mobile. That’s why RSS to Mobile applications will be the first to spread; this combined with SMS alert service is a very powerfull tool for the ones who want to stay updated on their news or social network media impulses.

Some interesting quotes…

Paul Otellini, CEO Intel: “With our new platforms, we’re not only boosting wireless computing, but also advancing digital entertainment a few steps closer to effortless.”

Google’s Eric Schmidt stated a couple of days ago: “The future mobile devices will be where consumers access the Internet most often.”

Besides, if you hadn’t heard it yet, Yahoo went Mobile last week!

This brings me to the mobile web 2.0 discussion currently going on several blogs. Ajit Jaokar started the debate at Open Gardens here. A must read in this area is also C. Enrique Ortiz’ Will AJAX Save The Day (for Mobile Apps Development)?

Kelly Goto at gotomobile.com believes the focus for their business lies in “the mobile web, and the possibilities for ’smart client’ solutions for convergence of content and application functionality on mobile devices.”

Some essential stuff if you’re writing about mobile is to try out the stuff you’re writing on. Mobile technology can only evolve if the users will use the devices and the applications smoothly; for this a good user experience is important and the creation of real value for the end-user. Check the blogs of Debi and Darla, they are trying out loads of real stuff!

An article that took my attention too was the one from Helen Keegan on participation TV and Charlie Schick’s hopes and fears for the mobile future.

Last but not the least the predictions from Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino at Mobhappy, if you’re interested and/or working in mobile, an absolute must for your forthcoming mobile strategic plans to unfold. I can blindly back-up Russell and Carlo on predictions nrs. 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 12, 13, 14 and 16.

And some comments on their predictions:

Prediction Nr. 1. - Apple launches the iPhone
> If Bang & Olufsen starts producing a mobile phone. called Serene, why Apple shouldn’t? To acces iTunes over 3G and splitting their 99 cents/tune revenue with the record companies and the operators? Then it’s easier to build a plugin into those Wi-Fi enabled phones and build-in Wi-Fi connectivity into iPods or other devices with direct links to the iTunes shop. My guess is that if Apple makes a move into mobile, they will come up with something more then just a mobile phone.

Prediction Nr. 3 - 3G won’t kill Wi-Fi, WiMAX won’t kill 3G.
> I love this one, it’s double-thinking

Prediction Nr. 4. - Operators will still struggle to find the key selling points of 3G.
> Obvious untill operators realise to stay in their business focusing on delivering communications and connectivity to the people, not services they can’t manage.

Prediction Nr. 5. - Ringtones implosion accelerates
> Depends where of course? Some countries and regions will continue their growth but on a general western market world level, I agree.

Prediction Nr. 7. MVNOs will gain in popularity
> The next breakthrough for users to acces services other then proposed by operators.

Prediction Nr. 13. Java Apps on the rise
> BTW: Opera mini is great!

Prediction Nr. 16. Mobile blogging and photoblogging will grow
> This one was definately on my list. Since camera phones becoming widespread, people just love to blog what they do, whenever, wherever they are.

My preferred prediction is Nr. 12 from Carlo: Myopic thinking, bad pricing and pointless services will continue keep mobile music from realizing its potential. A must read!

Other must read I discovered during holidays:

Interesting discussion form David Smith on What DRM argument? and have you heard about the Chinese Cyberwall?

As a finishing note, if you really want to know where the future of mobile technology is heading, check this demo of Intel… and watch what Intel and Apple are going to come up with this year together…

So this was a long, quite unusual post but it’s an overview and synthesis of my interesting points in mobile on which I will continue to focus and inform you on my blog from now on. Expect fewer but more in-depth and longer blogposts, I’ll post when I have something to say, there are loads of blogs out there with news and daily info and pressreleases on what’s happening in mobile, I will focus more on beyond the hype opinion.

I’m also very pleased that 3gsmworld is happening in Barcelona. I’m looking forward to get to know about new interesting projects and the people behind.

And btw: watch the Carnival of the Mobilists, this movement is gonna grow too in 2006. Hurray!

I wish you all a a great and healthy 2006 and I hope you’ll continue enjoying reading m-trends.org.