2008 was another exciting year for anything mobile in general, it was especially the breakthrough of Mobile 2.0 – its meme has now over 1.000.000 entries in Google. Many industry players started using the mobile 2.0 term in their marketing strategy, the iPhone stayed untouchable as the perfect catalyst converging web and mobile applications and services (300 million apps downloaded in 21 weeks!). 2008 was also the year of the breakthrough of mobile social media (Facebook mobile services grew by + 300%) and the Mobile Internet skyrocketed in Emerging Markets. Despite the shaky economy, the mobile phone continues its path as the default remote control towards the Internet of Things, creating various opportunities for new application scenarios for entrepreneurs in an ever-evolving global mobile ecosystem.
Read my Mobile and Wireless Trends for 2008 and check for yourself what I predicted last year. It’s always a good personal exercise how close one is predicting mobile market trends and it’s also an indicator of what I think will matter in 2009. It seems very obvious and easy but predicting trends can be tricky, just try it for yourself! Check also my del.icio.us for some interesting predictions from other technology blogs I bookmarked during holidays. You can read about my professional activities in 2008 here.
Make sure you check out Carlo Longino’s and Russell Buckley’s yearly predictions at Mobhappy, their predictions are now becoming nearly classic and are always one of my favourite readings during holiday.
So, here below my 10 Mobile Trends for 2009:
1. 10 startups I know personally will go bankrupt
Let’s start with the bad one first. I’m going to be bolder than Carlo with this prediction. Not to discourage my entrepreneurial friends around but 2009 is going to be really bad for many startups in mobile that haven’t been able to raise funding in 2008 or before. Especially the ones that don’t have a business model to generate cash will have to rely on their own private funding to survive the downturn period ahead. On the other hand I see a lot of talent out there with great ideas and/or unique developing capacity. I believe there will be more mergers and acquisitions of companies to keep technology and knowledge on their end and create new interest of VC’s interested to invest in such new talent pools before year end. Don’t forget that a lot of internet services still need to develop that specific mobile functionality, so I see a lot of consolidation for both web and mobile industries to make more web and mobile convergence happening.
2. iPhone Nano
Following their iPod product strategy, Apple will launch an iPhone Nano type of iPhone targeted to the mobile youth and teenagers market. Bringing a slimmer device to the market for this market segment (the hottest in mobile!) will boost Apple sales once again and keep building its mobile device manufacturer market share easily towards 10 % the years to come. I don’t need a lot of analytical market research data for this as proof. Just run a local focus group as I did with my 16year old daughters and their peers, and there’s no turning back, they all want an iPhone device!
I don’t see any competitor the coming 2 years coming up with a device that good as the iPhone. Nokia’s N97 is promising but Nokia has a problem with it’s OS. The company will need at least two years to move seamless to the new open-source OS after having acquired Symbian in 2008. Blackberry is staying strong in its segment for business users and travellers and it will stay there for a while since the iPhone is still lacking good & fast keypad input – the typical Blackberry need for business travellers hooked to responding emails 24/7. Blackberry has also a unique advantage to its competitors with its flat fees for global
Also, I agree with Stowe Boyd’s prediction, that Steve Jobs will step down as a CEO of Apple in 2009. AAPL lost + 50% in stock value in 2008 so it’s a good time for transition to rebuild company value from this point onwards, less depending on the health speculations of Steve Jobs.
3. Location becomes obsolete
Location – a specific position or point in physical space as used in technology, will become obsolete in 2009. By many industry players pushed as the new hype, location is already becoming a commodity.What I mean with this is that the user will not have to worry anymore about finding their location on their device, a lot of services and applications will have it build in by default. There will not be such thing as location-based advertising, etc… However there will be opportunities for the companies that can intelligently build new services around locations. The game is not around the location itself but around the ‘discovery’ of services around a location. Think Around Me, UrbanSpoon or GoodRec apps on the iPhone, Skyhook’s location-enabled browser toolbar, Loki, and startups like Rummble to discover recommended places by your friends and Skout who recently switched its strategy towards dating services based on location.
More and more iPhone apps and nearly all of the applications in the Android Developer Challenge have location technology embedded. Nokia acquired Gate5 previously, then Navteq and Plazes to make Nokia Maps as an essential part of their services strategy. Brightkite just announced that it’s now officially integrated with Facebook Connect and soon most application and service will have location build in.
4. Mobile will boost Virtual Goods consumption
The Virtual Economy already worth $1.2 billion and estimated to reach $6bn by 2010 (notes from the Virtual Goods Summit). Virtual goods will survive the hype, moreover, triggered from the mobile phone in combination with social media sites such as Facebook, Bebo or MySpace, this will create new revenues other then advertising. Micro payments systems such as Spare Change (powered by PayPal) and Zong let users move cash into the system, and applications like Mob Wars have gathered as much as $1 million per month from micropayments.
With better usability and accessibility of mobile services and platforms coming to us, consumers will buy more songs, more games, more applications (apps are replacing premium goods such as wallpapers and ringtones), and will send more virtual gifts to their friends and peers.
Once setup an account with a credit card, as for example on iTunes, the consumption of virtual goods is a no brainer. Personally I spent more last year bying songs, applications and games on the iPhone then I ever did from any other mobile phone. Better applications triggers more data consumption!
5. Mobile Cloud Computing
Today’s mobile applications need to be dynamic with ongoing content updates from users, many apps use cloud computing to store critical live data on servers on the web. On-the-go professionals and entreprises need to be able to interact with their employees and collegues from any Internet-connected computer or virtually any mobile handset. Documents as well as mail, address book, images, audio & video files, etc. need to be backed up continuously and securely to the cloud. Comcast acquired Plaxo, Vodafone acquired Zyb in 2008. Many companies need to implement mobile sales force automation solutions so I see services like SoonR for small and medium companies becoming more and more important. 2009 will be a breakthrough year for these kind of services.
6. Mobile SEO becoming increasingly important
With the fragmention of the device market not improving a lot, mobile SEO services and mobile search marketing will become as important for brands as their internet SEO. Finding products and services in the real world on the go will be key to many businesses. Local Search is rapidly becoming a million (probably billion) dollar industry – major players such as AOL, Google, Yahoo, Ask, and Microsoft have all jumped into this market.
Ever wondered how consumers will find your product/service on a mobile phone? It’s all about discovery, how users will detect the new and cool stuff. I believe a lot will be discovered through social media tools and friend recommendations but mobile SEO is of basic importance for any brand taking itself serious.
7. Mobile Browsers accessing device capabilities
In 2009, mobile browsers will become smarter – even on lower end phones, and will be able to access device capabilities such as camera, location and other mobile specific features. There are currently little hurdles left to browse Facebook from a mobile browser the same as you do from the Facebook App on the iPhone. Nearly the same functionality will be accessible through the browser, opening the gate for Nokia Series 40 phone users to have a better mobile web experience. Note that the Series 40 platform is the world’s most widely used mobile device platform, the Series 40 Browser is based on webkit technology.
Opera Mini users viewed more than 5.7 billion pages in November 2008 (!). Mozilla’s Fennec will be released this year, its difficult to see at this point what will be the impact of the browser on the mobile browser market but Mozilla will definately come up with some innovations on this end, note also a possible Google Chrome Mobile to be released this year too. All good news for the mobile web users!
8. Dense physical shopping area’s become a new potential for mobile data consumption
Many cities have hyper dense shopping area’s with millions of people passing by per year. Think about the potential these zones create for consumers to receive informations, vouchers, promotions, etc… on the mobile phone through short range technologies such as bluetooth or wi-fi. The cell phone can act as a new channel to trigger better recommendations for the consumer on what’s available in that area but also to stimulate digital goods consumption.
9. Mobile Collaboration Services on the rise
With the economic crisis hitting many travel expenses budgets the coming year, mobile video conferencing tools such as PhoneTopp will be booming this year. Due to downturn, people in general will travel less but the need to communicate, to learn and to stay informed with colleagues, friends and peers on what’s happening abroad stays. Applications and services in this area will grow. See also the potential of applications such as QIK and Seesmic and others have in this area. Just think for example about the potential of live video dating 
10. Mobile phone used to trigger disease detection
A couple of weeks ago, by using only an LED, plastic light filter and some wires, scientists at UCLA’s California NanoSystems Institute modded a cellphone into a portable blood tester capable of monitoring HIV, malaria, leukemia and detecting diseases. The tone is set for researchers and entrepreneurs to focus on some innovations in this area. the mHealth area has great potential in both the Western world and emerging countries, the mobile device can be used as a key instrument to improve people’s lifes and health. Look at the numerous iPhone applications already available for tracking users’ health using location and accelerometer functionality. Other devices and software are specifically developed to help elder and sick people in urgent situations.
That’s it, I’ll stop here. 2009 is also the 10th year I’ll be working in mobile. As the web becomes now accessible from the mobile for many people, a lot of essential work has been done since I saw my first video demo on a mobile phone back in 1999 in Finland. I can still see a lot of new opportunities in unexplored convergent area’s coming ahead such as in Health, Education, Assisted Living, Digital Home Solutions, Connected Cars, etc.
I’ll keep focusing on innovations happening in that area.
Wish you all the best for 2009!
Rudy,
Excellent post. Being relatively new to the mobile marketplace, I found it really useful. I agree that collaboration is the way forward in both business and technology and eagerly await developments in the new year. All the best, Eliza
excellent post Rudy looking forward to explosion of mobile in 2009 i think new mobile services especially in business arena will be excellent source of cost savings and therefore new revenues for mobilists in 2009
Thanks for the post Rudy. Great insight – i look forward to seeing it all develop.
Happy new year Rudy,
Get to see mHealth making the list…
Thanks for the post Rudy – check out our research on location-aware apps on the iPhone and G1 – http://www.skyhookwireless.com/inaction/locationapps.php
Thanks for the list! I’d really like #7 to break through.
Nothing about Android?
I believe with the success of the market modells (iPhone AppStore and Android Market) we will also see an revival of Mobile Rich Clients, focusing mainly on iPhone and then Android.
Cheers
Oliver
Any thoughts on how the education space might use mobile? It’s tricky, since most classrooms don’t allow mobile tech, but it seems likely that teens may gravitate toward using it as a learning tool, since they’re using it in so many other ways.
Interesting post Rudy. I think you have a very good overview of the new innovative companies so many of your predictions are likely to be true.
I must however object to the iPhone Nano (bullet 2). As I see it(and other more Apple religious people) the “one-device-approach” from Apple is a big part part of the success. Apps built for iphone will not work well on an iPhone nano.
What is your opinion on this?
Thank you for an insightful blog
Robert,
One-device-approach yes but Apple has created some different versions of the iPod (nano / classic / touch / shuffle) managing really well the UI, I really believe Apple team can do this and the application developers will adapt easily since it’s all about generating cash these days. After all, this is easy stuff compared to the hundreds of different parameters/properties to manage on other mobile operating systems. Check Device Atlas for details on the thouasands of others devices out there other than iPhone – http://deviceatlas.com/
Rachel,
Mobile technology and culture is a complete part of teenagers life. I don’t think mobile phones are really suited for classrooms but I’m sure as the devices get better at rapid pace and data fees become more affordable for many people, the youngsters will use the tools that are available to access and search information, exchange opinion and create actual work for school, ideally synchronised with their pc/laptop. Now they run around with a USB-stick to do this, soon it will be their mobile phone including a production kit with apps to work & create while having fun hopefully
I think there are HUGE opportunities out there for educational institutions to explore the possibilities.
Great balanced and informative article, thanks. Lets face it mobile is now mass media, there are at least twice as many mobiles than PC’s in the UK ther’s about the same ration for PC’s to TV’s too.
So logic dictates that if TV and Online are mass media then mobile has to be, lets hope this is the year that things finally kick off in a open and permission based manner.
Hi Rudy
Happy new year to you!
a brief comment on mobile in education. although mobile has a role to play (and we have seen palringo being used by some innovative education councils here in the UK), the bigger issue is regarding the use of technology in the classro0m and the cultural
barriers that have to be overcome–that is, the resistance by the teaching profession.
Educators need to be persuaded that mobile (and other) devices can enhance the educational experience; we need more pilot programmes to demonstrate value and we need more enlightened educators. Unfortunately, all we ever hear about are examples of schools trying to ban mobiles because of inappropriate behaviour.
of course, there is also the question how one makes money in education especially given that there is an extended and complicated “procurement” process making it very difficult for start-ups!
Perhaps this could be a module for module for mobile 2.0 2009?
best
kerry
Thank you for your very informative blog, Rudy. I agree with your predictions. What do you think of the advent of Application stores by other smart phone manufacturers as well as carriers? How will the multiplication of these stores help a mobile start-up and how do they need to adapt?
Raghu (Jayaraman Raghuraman)
Endeavour Software Technologies, Inc, Austin, TX
http://www.techendeavour.com
Hi Rudy, great list but I am skeptical about the extent to which some of these predictions will hit the radar. Take “Location becomes obsolete” for example. Sounds great, location independent services and location detecting handsets (already available). However with differing network capabilities, a very wide range of handset capabilities, differing MNO perceptions on service value and so many tariff options/structures, I cannot see any viable services appearing any time soon.
The MNOs, MCPs, Aggregators and Service Providers all hustling for position will cast doubt on commercial content services for a couple of years at least.
Hi Raghu
Answer to your question will depend on success / usage of the Platform (OS). Symbian is in this arena from long time but we never heard a case like Iphone app store.
This is good from developer prospective. Actually the success stories and new technologies motivates the developers to develop applications for the platform.
I am sure Andriod will be a huge success as IPhone.
The more competition or developers we have the better product we can expect at the end of the day isnt it.
Regards
Rishi
Hi Rudy, Good reading. I missed the personalisation aspect, I believe personalisation will have an impact beyond Location. Adjusted content for all sorts of parameters and preferences. Once we’ll be able to upload (not MMS) images to a mobile web site from most phones, this will also open the scene for some interesting implementation. The mHealth market is already getting big in Emerging Markets, not using iPhones but genius solutions for simple devices and also some customised or specially developed devices.
Thanks for a good article and Happy Mobile 2009! It’ll be a good year!
Best,
Anna Gudmundson
Great predictions as always.
Some have said 09 is the year of the mobile web… i’m thinking it may be the year of the mobile widget as everybody moves to compete with the apple app store
Hi Rudy.
Thank you for your very informative blog, I agree with your predictions.
I am very glad to post our Top 10 Predictions for Mobile Advertising in 2009
http://zestadz.wordpress.com/2008/12/11/top-10-predictions-for-mobile-advertising-in-2009/
Rudy,
Particularly interested in the mobile cloud computing element of your predictions. The biggest issue I see with the current incarnations is the assumption of connectivity. You can have a rich experience but only if you using WiFi or in a fantastic 3G coverage zone. Developers have essentially ported web apps to mobile unfortunately this doesn’t wash when I’m on the bus, walking between meetings, or just when in poor coverage.
I think/hope 2009 will see developers wake up to this and start providing mobile cloud apps that work offline as well as online, seamlessly synchronising data when coverage returns.
I also see the economic downturn, and associated reduction in handset purchases, to be a real opportunity to focus on linking the existing handset estate with the cloud. Records of communication are essentially stranded on billions of handsets when they should be linked with business transactions and CRM interactions. Enterprises are going to look to bring that data into their networks. The demand will be to make this work on S40 handsets and their contemporaries rather than just the latest S60/iPhone/Android so companies can benefit with out refreshing the handsets.
Great set of predictions,
Adam
Raghu and Rishi,
Application stores are undoubtly a new revenue generator, for major mobile industry brands, starting with Apple, Google, Microsoft, and device manufacturers and operators will definately also jump on that train.
To me it’s all about the channel, how can the user discover new content, services and applications? For developers it’s about the the revenue model and the $$$ they can make directly by developing applications. The best models with the most market reach will be the ones dominating these market segments.
I talked about the emerging of App stores earlier, my presentations from last year here – http://www.slideshare.net/rudydw
Kerry,
We’re exploring a more thematic approach for the next Mobile 2.0 Europe, mobile phones used as a tool for education is definately one of the area’s we’re exploring. Let me know if you know about existing projects or have ideas in that area.
Great article! Do you know of any initiatives by mobile companies currently undertaking the implementation of one solution or app for item #8? Thanks Much.
Anna,
Agree, personalisation is definately key. Check previous article by guest writer Andrew Berglund on this topic here – http://www.m-trends.org/2007/03/personalisation-and-customisation-mobile-fashion-ss-2007-part-10.html
I included personalisation in most of my presentations here since last year – http://www.slideshare.net/rudydw
Thanks Rudy.
That’s an excellent work.
I feel 2009 will be also a paradigm shift for the UI of the applications: beyond the QR Code, the Touchscreen, Sensors, … Applications will finally enter into the NFC dimension, using the NFC feature for most of the phones.
NFC is not new, but only available to a couple of phones: no way to make money.
However, in 2009, NFC becomes portable for over 150 phones (via Bluetooth), beyond the 4 current NFC-native Phones in 2008 and the next 4-5 new phones in 2009.
The first massively deployed NFC applications will rise, and it will change the way people perceive Mobile Applications.
Prototype exists (Twinlinx solution), demos exist.
First NFC applications are currently being written.
It will be interested to watch.
Vincent.
I agree with most, especially #1,3,6,8. I do have a problem with #5: cloud computers. There is a lot of hype about this (used to be called “thin client” a few years ago). Some issues include – can’t work off-line, and the inability to keep the data on ones’ device.
In a market where companies disappear suddenly, keeping my data online only with a company that may not be around is risky. I heard about a CRM company that went bust, and not only that all the online data that people had got lost, the names and addresses of all the customers were sold to Russian spammers. Ask Larry Ellison what he thinks about cloud computers. He won’t go near it!
Well, at least you didn’t say that “2009 will be the year of mobile”
The most intriguing point to me and where we working on with handivi.com, is the #5 – mobile cloud computing. Still I didn’t quite understand what you consider “computing”, since you’re basically talking about ubiquity – running everything anywhere. The cloud effect on this is to have your stuff sync’ed or just the data outside the phone/terminal, as you wrote, turning the device into a dumb and dispensable equipment, pushing along into this area the operator and obviously their services (voice, data plan). People are nomads and that’s probably the biggest change from todays paradigm. For me, this year will be all about ubiquity, ubiquity, ubiquity; the possibility to have all my data in a central place, using the mobile operator just as a carrier. If I loose my phone or change devices, I would just go to somewhere and pull all my stuff again.
But to achieve this ubiquity, we need faster connections and probably generous data plans. We’re half way there.
I cant say i agree with all of it, nor everyone [disclaimer] but there are some magic words that fall from the lips of trend-splitting technologists, and more so, the marketeers…
1. SIP – free phone calls with alphanumeric IDs or email addresses [we dont need mobile numbers anymore!]…also free data, mail, etc
2. LBS-like Place Search – Sony has embedded (not activated) this in all handsets and PSPs which make them all location-aware [they're one up on Nokia's nGage efforts cos i actually saw how this worked in all of 4 seconds]. On the other hand GoogMaps was 800m off the mark.
3. IPV6, WiMax, plus the new Google network [oops ...you haven't heard?]
4. embedded tracking – already in q u i t e a L A R G E number of SIM cards, accuracy to under 20m, including activation of fencing and [note] web function calls. spelt as mHealth, seniors, husbands/wives, villains, pets, dating, shopping, CRM, logistics, and military [with triangulation, less than 5m]. This is NOT GPS.
5. GPhone apps – easy peasy to all that’s greasy – tech mechanics dont need much to make almost any app get onto the G device – it’s not the tech but the db marketing
6. Education and PDAs – already a reality as it replaces dataloggers and syncs with schools’ wifi for podcasts and announcements – many colleges already have their own customised browsers whi auto searches their own research databases
there’s a fair bit more….but i fear moving out of topic
felix
WOW! What an interesting read! Certainly gave me something to think about. Either way, mobile technology is the way of the future, leaving so many exciting areas of opportunity to those who are willing to jump in and make their Mark.
Thanks for posting.
Greg