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2007 was a very prosperous and exciting year for mobile technology in general, still we’re just at the beginning of a new era of more magic to come in the mobile and web convergent area’s. So, traditionally I’m writing down 10 Mobile Trends for the coming year, always a good personal excercise how close one is predicting mobile market trends and an indicator of what I think will matter in 2008.

Read my Mobile and Wireless Trends for 2007 and check for yourself my gut feeling on what happened yet and what is still to come. It seems very obvious and easy but predicting trends can be tricky, just try it for yourself! Check also my del.icio.us for some interesting predictions from other technology blogs I bookmarked during holidays. One of my favorite readings during holidays is still Carlo Longino’s and Russell Buckley’s yearly predictions at Mobhappy. Do check them out!

So here are my Mobile and Wireless Trends for 2008:

1. Google’s Android and the Open Handset Alliance will definately take off in 2008. While the iPhone is doing probably the best job embracing mobile and web convergence, the Apple OS is still a closed system and used by a rather small market segment of users. Nokia’s Nseries - though all remarkeable devices - didn’t produce any breakthrough Symbian OS changes last year and is still too buggy to go mass-market - I don’t see my sister or father perform a device software update; which leaves the opportunity for Google and the Open Handset Alliance to get the new Linux-based operating system Android on several cutting-edge smartphones before year-end. Mobile OS, a truely competitive space in 2008!
   
2. The Rise of the Mobile Social Networks. M:Metrics released some promising data mid-2007 on the rise of the Mobile Social Networks. With the big social media networks all going mobile in 2007 (Facebook, MySpace, YouTube and Bebo, …), this trend will continue to rise in 2008, sustained by more flat rate introductions on different markets.
   
3. Apple will be seriously attacked by the music industry on its own, once disruptive, iTunes business model. 2008 will be the year of further downfall of DRM and the raise of watermarked audio-files. With Sony BMG planning to drop DRM - the last of the Big Four record labels with Warner Music Group, Universal Music Group and EMI Music, to throw in the towel on digital rights management. The end of DRM might embolden a host of new, online download venues initiated by the Big Four in its searches for a successful digital strategy. Note also the rise of new business models (!) giving away DRM-free, ad-supported music downloads, like the recently founded Rcrd Lbl by Peter Rojas. Read my DRM Free at Last! for a recent overview and links to previous posts on this topic.
4. Telefonica will introduce the 3G iPhone. To be announced at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February?
5. The return of the Location-Based Services. Since Nokia introduced the Nseries N95 with built in GPS, Location-Based Services are becoming exciting again. A new wave of mobile services and applications build on the location of the user (cell-ID and/or GPS) will see the light this year, driven by the open Google Maps API and flickr’s geotagged photo function. Read also my early 2005 coverage on the formerly known MoSoSos.
6. First iPhone competitors coming to market. Nokia will introduce a serious competitor for the iPhone. It has the hardware manufacturing intelligence and knowledge to come up with its own multi-touch screen interface. Biggest challenge for Nokia (and other manufacturers) will be to keep the OS user-experience as simple as the iPhone. Expect some great innovating devices from HTC too in 2008! (checkout the HTC Touch Dual).
7. Mobile Video Blogging starting to taking off. Though still to be used by early adopters, mobile video blogging tools such as Kyte.tv mobile are already doing a great job with Floobs and KaZiVu also looking very promising (both still in beta), not to forget about YouTube Mobile. All eyes will be on Seesmic however that has the right start-up vibe - instigated daily by its impressive experienced shareholders (and web 2.0 icons) and its very active beta-testers community. Imagining Seesmic to be used on your mobile phone is an easy one, the challenges for Seesmic are to bypass the complex technical issues and delivery of its great idea.
8. Mobile search, as already predicted last year will continue to be one of the most important and most used mobile applications. I keep this one in my list adding that some new players might disrupt the big Search market players, not having figured out the real mobile search issues such as accuracy, context, relevance, latency and the correct display of local and niche results.
9. PRM (Personal Rights Management) and Privacy policies and procedures will be high on the agenda for every entreprise and conscious connected individuals. Already talk of the connected crowds at LeWeb3, opening the Social Graphs might appear cool in your social media community but has to be done right! As a starter, check out Dataportability.org and watch Robert Scoble explaining his recent portability issues with Facebook.
10. Twitter and the breakthrough of the ultimate Mobile Presence Tool. Yes, Twitter is the utlimate mobile presence tool, since it’s the easiest to use (through SMS and mobile web access), and most accurate to stay connected at any time from anywhere… Jaiku has a definately a richer client but Twitter is the most easily integrated into most of your social networks, checkout MoodBlast that can simultaneously update multiple chat clients and web services presence tools. 2008 will also see the rise of lifestreaming apps like Tumblr, surprisingly simple on the web and looks great on your mobile phone.

Some of the downers of 2007:

- the sudden death of great blogger Marc Orchant - my deepest sympathies to Marc’s family.

- the whole blognation’s saga - one nation, many bugs…
- and just recently Om Malik’s heart attack - wish him strength, get well soon, Om!

Definately an urge for all bloggers not to forget about their daily excercise, no less!

I wish all my readers a great and magic 2008!

The title was originally a tweet of which I decided to write a short blogpost about. I don’t know why it took so long for Nokia to figure out that their Nseries users are most probably in majority Mac users, at least from my own experience - hint: it would be great to have this statistic somewhere.

With the PR heath of the iPhone in its neck, Nokia (finally!) released yesterday another part of its Mac OS connectivity strategy, with the release of Nokia Media Transfer 1.0 beta:

The Nokia Media Transfer application enables you to transfer pictures, videos, podcasts, music, and files between your Nokia mobile device and your Mac.

The application makes it easier to transfer and synchronise music from iTunes to your phone. It also works with the iPhoto app for image and video transfers. I played with it and this is finally an application where the word seamless is not overkill to describe the experience to synchronise files between your Mac and Nokia Nseries device.

Old iTunes DRM protected files will not work on the Nokia of course but with the new EMI DRM files (buy once, play everywhere) it works! This is the way to go, both for Nokia and Apple, leave the freedom for the user to beam his legally bought tunes to his possible many different devices, this openess might in the end create more revenue and more happy consumers.

BTW Steve, really looking forward for the iTunes one-click option to easily upgrade my entire library of all previously purchased iTunes Store content to the higher quality DRM-free format

Now still, as Charlie suggests, some smooth synching needed for to-do’s, notes and iCal!

My apologies for the use of another “2.0 meme” but after my participation in a debate on the Future of Mobile Music at the Digital Music 2.0 Conference in Barcelona this week I felt I needed to update you briefly on some new thoughts on the subject. Since my writings during the MuLiMob project, my piece on “Connecting Cultures through Music“, and “DRM, free at last!” I haven’t been writing on the issue anymore.

Last Tuesday, in a Lab on Media and Human Experience, a filosophical flow excercise in between media, technology and philospophy, we discussed about ‘connected and un-connected spaces’ … media convergence is happening but the media industry is still pretty much off-line as of now, so the question is: where’s the bridge? And where is it happening?

I must admit I was pretty amazed that during the Digital Music 2.0 Conference comments and questions coming from the audience were still of the type such as “CD’s are still the major part of the business, digital music distribution only 9% of the market”, and - a couple of times - “How can you become so big without spending budget on marketing, I mean really “0″ on marketing?” and my favourite “Will mobile phones replace MP3 players one day?”… Us speakers had a though job to bridge our message of the indepth changes that are currently happening the way we consume music and the business surrounding it.

Trying to stay humble, I realized one more time there is still a lot to do to bridge the digital connected (internet connected tools, things, people and services) with the more unconnected world of tradional TV, CD’s, DVD’s formats.

When Edgar, the organizer, asked me in November to participate to this conference, I was quite sceptical since I had my made my conclusions on music 2.0 a couple of years ago while finalizing the MuLiMob project, it would only need some time for the industry to realize the curve of the long tail and that something profoundly was changing the music industry due to the innovations happening in web technologies and the way communities were influencing the way we consume music. Communities like last.fm were adding new ways to discover and listen to music opening opportunities for people to meet others with similar music tastes. This community has now grown to 15 million users and Claire Levy had the pleasure to anounce CBS bought last.fm for $280 million, real good news for recommendation technologies and online communities involving music in general

Mobile Web 2.0 or Mobile 2.0, Music 2.0 or Mobile Music 2.0, people say these are all hype terms, in a way they are but there are some real changes and differences to be finetuned, so why this title?

In my panel with operators Telefonica and Orange, it seemed as I was coming from another planet with my presentation on the current state of Mobile 2.0 and the the next generation data services for connected devices. Understandable knowing it took them (the operators) a couple of years to outcompete the SMS Service Providers (selling ringtones and wallpapers), and the same operators have been positioning (= investing) the last couple of years as music retailers to start selling realtunes… meanwhile another range of competitors are coming in their field.

While the new generation of phones and devices - Nokia Nseries up front - a new set of opportunities to consume music is arising, with the possibility to sideload or download music directly to your phone, whatever connection is it that you use (3G, wifi, bluetooth, usb, etc). At the conference, the operators were still defending the classic model - a song downloaded on the mobile has much more value and has thus a defendable value of 3€ including restricted DRM (!), adding the argument that NSeries and iPhones as the high-end range phones that are too expensive for the masses anyway.

My argument was that those phones might be more expensive but a simple calculation of my personal consumption learns that I buy average some 3 albums online/month (approx. 30 songs). So, on iTunes at 0,99€/song makes 356,4 € a year spend on digital music… while downloading over an operators retailer shop at a 3€/song rate, the same amount of content would costs me 1.080€ + additional download costs… the difference in 1 year would pay me a new phone, think about!

Also I would like to emphasize one more time that DRM has to be free - buy once, use everywhere - as it used to be with LP’s and CD’s. Amazon.com announcing it’s latest deal with EMI and 12.000 labels to sell DRM-free that plays on any device is another major step into Digital Consumer Enablement

I think that’s another reason why Apple is going to surprise a lot of people soon again… If I can connect my iPhone over a WLAN or to my computer to buy my music, it’s another great advantage for the iPhone users, from there I can carry it with me everywhere…

On May 31st I will be participating in a debate on the Future of Mobile Music at the Digital Music 2.0 Conference in Barcelona, organised by the Catalan Institute for Cultural Industries during the Primavera Sound Festival. I’m looking forward to this debate, specifically to better understand how the music industry and the mobile operators are dealing with the dramatic changes the industry is going through to adapt towards a Long Tail economy.

I have been presenting my ideas on this topic during the MuLiMob project in 2005, it’s always interesting to doublecheck vision and reality regularely, things are really changing at an incredible fast pace in our industry.

The panel will be moderated by Ramón Castán, CEO of Creative Associates and is composed of speakers from Movistar, Orange, Carles Campdelacreu, CEO of Acquamedia, Mario Fernández of IMI Mobile and myself.

Here’s the thematic and some questions set forth for the panel:

Can Mobile Save the Industry? Focus on the Growing Importance of Mobile Phones for Buying, Storing and Listening to Music. Is the mobile phone only a passing hype when it comes to music services? Are the telecom’s walled gardens working? Is the mobile just another data pipeline at the end of the day? Why is a song so expensive when purchased on a mobile? Is mobile technology vulnerable to piracy? Is the personalization to music fans the main reason for mobile products success?

The conference hosts many other sessions and speakers like Isaac Monclús, Director of cultural programmes, FNAC Barcelona; Richard Gottehrer, founder and chairman, The Orchard; Shira Perlmutter, executive VP, Global Legal Policy, IFPI-International Federation of the Phonographic Industry; Shelley Taylor, CEO, All Dig Down; Horst Weidenmüller, Impala’s and VUT’s VP, member of Merlin interims board, and CEO of !K7 Records; Clair Levy, head of business development, Last.fm. Javier Lorente, Portal and Applications Development Manager, General Manager of Technology and Services, Telefónica España; Alex Murray-Leslie, musician, Chicks On Speed; Kevin Arnold, founder and CEO, IODA – Independent Online Distribution Alliance; and many others, really interesting program, check it out!

For the ones like me who appreciate the sound difference between a flat 128kbps music file (AAC, mp3, mp4, wmv or other formats) and a 320kbps quality of a normal CD, the news this week that EMI Music launches DRM-free superior sound quality downloads across its entire digital repertoire is great news, not only because major record companies will (finally!) be offering downloadable music files without DRM encoding - the stuff which makes it nearly impossible to move purchased songs from one computer or music player or mobile phone to another. It’s extra nice because major players in the music industry will start to offer songs that will sound a lot better.

As a passionate music lover, the listening experience of for example Petroushka by Igor Stravinsky on a good quality sound system is not comparable with the same music crapped into a 128kbps mp3 or mp4 file, whatever the soundsystem may be you’re going to play that file on. I remember lively the first time I heard Petroushka on vinyl performed by the legendary Moscow Radio Symphony Orchestra on a good sound system blew me completely away. With digital music surrounding us everyday, you’d almost forget about the quality of a listening experience - just try to mix some mp3 songs with a vinyl recording and you’ll see what I hear
But any good music deserves a great quality listening experience whether it’s Philip Glass, Devotchka or the Cold War Kids, I’m listening to while writing this. So what does this weeks’ anouncement means for consumers and the business?

EMI Group’s announcement of February 14 - revenues for the financial year ending 31 March 2007 expected to decline by around 15% and Steve Jobs’ Thoughts on Music might have accelerated the need for change but Eric Nicoli, CEO of the EMI Group is now taking the lead in what we digital music consumers have been waiting for for quite a while now. In only a couple of weeks time, EMI Music announced a multi-product content partnership with last.fm, the deal with Apple’s iTunes this week, and also announced “The Good, The Bad & The Queen” to become the first EMI album to be made available for download in a new DRM-free, high quality MP3 format. The first major record label listening to its’ consumers?

At CTIA, Nicoli listed a 3-step test that all consumer products should be able to pass, and that he thought was lacking in the wireless world (source GigaOM):

1. Give them something that is good value for money
2. Make something that is functional and works on practical level
3. Make something that is simple to use and easy to understand

Something the operators should have figured out by now but it’s where Apple is seeing the opportunity with the iPhone (to be released in June in US). Now is the Apple’s anouncement of Higher Quality DRM-Free Music from EMI Available on iTunes another leap ahead for Silicon Valley’s “rebel with a cause” Steve Jobs? The recent anouncement of Microsoft’s Mobile DRM system ‘PlayReady‘ - that will allow the use of commercial content on multiple different devices for a single fee comes basically way too late. Steve sets the tone, once again since he entered the music business.

Regular M-Trends readers know my early rants on this subject, for newbies read About digital music distribution to family targets and Mobile Music For Families. No thanks! both written in 2005. Knowing this, one can imagine I was really excited to try out my first DRM FREE download. Also I have been stopping to buy songs on iTunes lately since I just could not play them on my Nokia Nseries phones and wanted to make sure the DRM free and higher quality downloads were not only working as a multi-service or platform but also multi-device, you know the real thing we have been looking for. I downloaded a 320kbps mp3 file straight from The Good, The Bad & The Queen website, beamed from my laptop to our home PC and to my Nokia N80i and it works, hurray!

And where do we leave the independent record labels? EMI and Apple knew that progressive independant labels were already offering DRM free higher quality songs on their portal and that’s exactly where new opportunities lie for the smaller labels such as Sonar Kollektiv. I’m buying regularely music from their online shop since I cannot find it elsewhere and it has a lot of music of my taste. Smaller labels can build around their brand image and create a different added value to their audience.

Anyway, this decision is going to dramatically change the digital music landscape and may hopefully encourage other major labels to abandon DRM. This is not killing business, it is changing the way we do business. Consumers will be the winners. Free at last!

MOBILE MUSIC

On the Mobile Music front 3GSM started already one week before the actual event with Steve Jobs’ Thoughts on Music meaning Digital Rights Management (DRM); DRM is a trigger for the Record Labels to control the sales of digital music. A great and surprising Open Letter by Steve, certainly with a strategy behind, I was thinking a week before the event, too busy preparing the MobileMonday Global Peer Awards (I want to come back on the Steve Jobs letter later here).

Surprise, surprise, on Day one of the event, Microsoft anounced the launch of its own Mobile DRM system ‘PlayReady‘ (!) that will allow the use of commercial content on multiple different devices for a single fee. Is this what the consumer is waiting for?

Two days later, at the opening session on Wednesday, the chairman and CEO of Warner Music Group Corp, Edgar Bronfman Jr. said “that buying digital music from a mobile phone is too difficult and the music and mobile phone industries need to improve the process to meet demand (…)”

A study last year found that only 8.5 percent of people who own a phone that can be used to download and purchase music actually did so. “Why? It’s expensive, it’s complicated and it’s slow,” he said. “It’s amazing that we’ve generated as much revenue as we have given how cumbersome the experience can be.”

For your info, personally I haven’t bought one single tune on my mobile phone(s), though I consider myself one of the 3% online (legal) PC music buyers Steve is mentioning in his open letter:

“Today’s most popular iPod holds 1000 songs, and research tells that the average iPod is nearly full. This means that only 22 out of 1000 songs, or under 3% of the music on the average iPod, is purchased from the iTunes store and protected with a DRM. The remaining 97% of the music is unprotected and playable on any player that can play the open formats.”

The 3% I bought on iTunes of course, so where do the other songs come from? Older Cd’s (of LP’s I bought already once before…) copied to my iTunes and to my phone.

I wonder if the US companies heard about OMA DRM from the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)? Its mission is to provide interoperable service enablers working across countries, operators and mobile terminals. Since its inception in June 2002, the Open Mobile Alliance has grown to more than 300 companies representing mobile operators, device and network suppliers, information technology companies, and content providers Members include traditional wireless industry players such as equipment and mobile systems manufacturers (Ericsson, Siemens, Nokia, Openwave, Sony Ericsson, Philips, Motorola,Samsung…) and mobile operators (Telefónica, Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile…), but also software vendors (Microsoft - hello?, Sun Microsystems, IBM, Oracle Corporation, Symbian, Celltick…)

I don’t get it everyone was thinking Apple would show it’s iPhone at 3GSM. Why smart Steve would do such thing now when he announced previously the iPhone launch for Europe around Christmas 2007? Who else can say he has a product with 50,400,000 Google entries before it’s actual launch I haven’t seen any other phone brand model beat that! Oviously no big players are scared about the iPhone…

One thing gets clearer everyday, the iPhone has one big advantage: it’s Mac OS X and iTunes seamless integration; why would the iPhone need 3G? Everyone will buy its tunes on iTunes and beam or synchronize them to his iPhone, easily, with one-click buy activated… I dig.

Still, when I wanted to make a personalized mix for the MobileMonday Global Peer Awards networking party (no selling or re-distributing of the music I bought!) iTunes told me “You cannot copy 16 of the choosen songs to your CD”… come one guys, GET REAL! Next time I think I’m going to invite a band and offer their songs directly through a Futurlink-a-like interface…

More M-Trends thoughts on 3GSM here soon including mobile trend stuff such as IMS, IPTV, the mobilisation of Web 2.0, mobile search, the awards and the networking parties of course!

You can view my 3GSM Flickr Photoset here.

For anyone kicking of 2007 working in content, digital distribution and digital rights management, do take an hour to watch this conference of Lawrence Lessig on “The Differences between Culture and Code” from the 23rd Chaos Communication Congress in Berlin last week. Absolutely recommendable if you want to understand what current technology evolution does with content and culture and how to find solutions to manage these changes in a fair way.

Via Enrique Dans, via Joi Ito.